NFL Super Wild Card Weekend odds: Trust the 49ers, more best bets

The NFL’s  postseason is set to begin with Super Wild Card Weekend, and I am pumped for this year’s playoffs.  

The three games on this week’s slate are rematches from the regular season, which begs the question: Can the heavy favorites — 49ers and Bills — cover with big spreads against division rivals? 

Additionally, given that the Chargers and Jacksonville are vastly different teams from their earlier season soirée, how different will the game planning be this time around?

As usual, I have you covered like a blanket. 

So without further ado, here are my best bets for the 2023 Super Wild Card Weekend (with odds via FOX Bet):

Seahawks at 49ers (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

They’ve met two times this season, and the 49ers rolled in both games by a combined 48-20. 

Seattle only got into the red zone twice against the 49ers defense. Seattle got lucky to sneak into the playoffs, as Geno Smith didn’t play well down the stretch, with multiple interception games at home against the Ramsand Panthers. This will be his first playoff start (same for Brock Purdy of the 49ers), but you have to give a massive edge to the 49ers offense, which shredded Seattle for 6.2 yards per play last month in Seattle. And that was without Deebo Samuel (he’s back). 

The Seahawks struggle to defend tight ends (George Kittle had two TDs in the last meeting), and they’ll also be without their leading tackler Jordyn Brooks, the 2020 first-round pick who is out for the season. 

Seattle’s path to keeping this close is perhaps blitzing Purdy heavily and hoping he makes mistakes, and then deploying a move-the-chains offense with Tyler Lockett (16 catches for 175 yards in two meetings) and then praying Kenneth Walker can find room against the No. 2 rushing defense in the NFL.

If you must bet the 49ers here, just know you’re paying a premium as they enter on a 10-game win streak and have covered seven of eight. Since 2001, teams that enter the playoffs on a 10+ game winning streak, they’re 2-13 against the spread. 

PICK: 49ers (-9.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 9.5 points

Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence, who faces more pressure in first career playoff start?

Emmanuel Acho and LeSean McCoy discuss who they are more confident in heading into the playoffs: Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence.

Chargers at Jaguars (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC)

Rematch of a Week 3 game that should have zero bearing on how you bet this one. Yes, Jacksonville won 38-10 at SoFI Stadium. But the spot was horrible for the Chargers as they were coming off a grueling loss to the rival Chiefs, and QB Justin Herbert was nursing injured ribs and played terribly. 

Possession receiver Keenan Allen did not play. During the game, the Chargers lost star tackle Rashawn Slater and edge rusher Joey Bosa, and the team was rattled. They came out of halftime looking crestfallen and were blown out in the second half. 

Jacksonville’s 30th-ranked pass defense will struggle to contain Justin Herbert, as this is a huge step up in class from the QBs they’ve faced in the last six games.

If you’re looking at props, Keenan Allen might be your guy. Jacksonville’s slot corner is Tre Herndon, who was undrafted and graded out as 101st out of 104 corners at the position.

PICK: Chargers (-143 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win outright

Nick likes Tua-less Miami Dolphins vs. Josh Allen & Buffalo Bills

Nick explains he doesn’t expect the Dolphins to come away with a win but believes (+13.5) is way too many points for a divisional rematch.

Dolphins at Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

When the Bills hosted the Dolphins just a few weeks ago, Buffalo was -7. That was against Tua Tagovailoa on the third game of a three-game road trip. Tua will not be playing and (hopefully?) Teddy Bridgewater will be under center. If it’s Skylar Thompson, the Dolphins can forget it. 

Bridgewater may offer some hope, but he’s appeared significantly in three games this season, with losses as a starter against Minnesota and New England, and he was shaky in relief in Cincinnati.

Oddly enough, the last time Miami made the playoffs was in January 2016, when Ryan Tannehill got them there but was injured, and Matt Moore started. The Dolphins lost 30-12. 

Since 2002, quarterbacks making their first NFL playoff start have gone 17-37-1 against the spread and 18-37 straight up.

Temperatures are expected to be in the high 20s or low 30s Sunday, and there’s no precipitation in the forecast. Josh Allen was tied for second in the NFL with 14 interceptions and has not looked particularly sharp since the elbow injury. But can Miami’s defense put up much resistance? 

PICK: Bills (-9 at FOX Bet at time of pick) to win by more than 9 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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