NFL odds Week 12: Why you should back the Jets, Dolphins and more bets

Thanksgiving is here, and everyone knows this marks the NFL week that the season-long narratives begin to solidify. 

Are the Dolphins strong enough to make a deep run? Is Aaron Rodgers simply unmotivated or is he on the decline? Lastly, is the Jets‘ offense a hot flaming pile of dog poop?

Well, the answer to that last question is yes, and after Zach Wilson‘s post game presser, it’s no wonder Coach Saleh is expressing doubts as to who the Jets’ starting quarterback will be this weekend. Nevertheless, I am not concerned as I still have my J-E-T-S on this week’s slate. 

So without further ado, here are my best bets for Week 12 (with odds via FOX Bet). 

Are Jets ready to move off Zach Wilson?

Kurt Warner joins Colin Cowherd on The Herd to discuss the latest news surrounding the current quarterback situation with Zach Wilson and the New York Jets.

Bears at Jets (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

You can’t bet this game until you know the status of Justin Fields, the exciting Bears QB who injured his non-throwing shoulder late in the game against the Falcons

Without Fields, the starter will be Trevor Siemian, a journeyman who has started four games (all last year for the Saints) in the last five years. The Jets have already faced backup QBs in wins over Pittsburgh, Miami and Denver

The Bears’ defense has given up 27 or more points in four straight games, which means even Wilson should be able to have some success. As debilitating as the Jets’ loss to New England was, they clearly have a top-five defense in the league, and the movement on the line (from Jets -3.5 to -5.5; total down from 48 to 41.5) suggests Fields isn’t playing. The Jets’ defense will dominate this game if Fields does not play. 

If he does play, the Over would be my play. With Fields out, the pick is Jets -4.5. 

PICK: Jets (-4.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 4.5 points

Texans at Dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Is there a worse team in the league than the Texans? After showing some fight on the road in a loss to the Giants, they came home and got embarrassed by Washington, 23-10. Davis Mills threw a pick-6 on his second pass of the game, and it was over. 

Miami’s defense has been carved up by Fields and Jared Goff in the last month, but it’s difficult to envision the Texans being able to keep up with Mike McDaniel’s offensive attack. If rookie cornerback Derek Stingley returns from a hamstring injury, he’ll be asked to hang with Tyreek Hill. Not a good matchup, either way.

Double-digit favorites are 10-21 ATS this season, so tread lightly here, but I see a blowout coming.

PICK: Dolphins (-12.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 12.5 points 

Patriots at Vikings (8:30 p.m. ET Thursday, NBC)

The Patriots were fortunate to beat the Jets once again, taking advantage of a poor offense and scoring the NFL’s first punt return TD this season with five seconds left. They’ll need much more than that against a Vikings offense coming off one of the meekest performances of the season. 

The glaring problem for Minnesota will be the left side of the offensive line, which was lost to injury against Dallas. They’ll for sure be without All-Pro candidate LT Christian Darrisaw, which is bad news against DPOY contender Matthew Judon (NFL-leading 13.5 sacks). 

Dig deep into the 6-4 Patriots, and you’ll find wins against Mitchell Trubisky (benched), Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson (twice). But I have concerns about backing Kirk Cousins in primetime. 

The Vikings have a whiff of fraudulence, too — 8-2 record, -2 point differential — which is why I don’t see many points being scored. 

PICK: Under 42.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Nick is not ready to label the Eagles a great team just yet

Nick believes the Eagles are a good team, but is not ready to classify them as a great team despite their record.

Packers at Eagles (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

The Packers followed up a stirring win over the Cowboys with a flat, terrible performance against the Titans. Green Bay’s lack of consistency has been a theme all season, and it’s more than just the receivers or the defense — Aaron Rodgers has been spotty, too. 

The Eagles won eight straight before two poor performances against Washington (loss) and Indianapolis (narrow win). They haven’t covered the last two games, and you have to wonder if the run defense will be up to the task of slowing Aaron Jones. They gave up 49 yards rushing to Jonathan Taylor on the opening drive, but only 35 thereafter. 

There is some concern about the workload on Philly QB Jalen Hurts, who has 110 carries in 10 games, a number that isn’t sustainable for his health, especially given the need for him in the playoffs. 

PICK: Under 46.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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